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I say third, just because I see Microsoft releasing the next XBox system before the PS3 happens to surpass the 360 worldwide. Even if it is twp 360 systems duct-taped together, and including Natal in it, it will likely happen. And thus, "this generation" would be over.  Microsoft said they will end up ahead of Sony this generation, so even with smoke and mirrors, it is likely to happen.

Now, as for TOTAL sales lifetime of 360 vs PS3, the odds are greater the PS3 overtakes it.