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Pineapple on 29 December 2009
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It depends a bit on when you ask me. Before Super Mario Galaxy launched, I expected it to sell ~ 12-13 million (which was also what I thought Mario Kart Wii would sell). At that time, I didn't even consider thinking about a New Super Mario Bros game on Wii, so I had no opinion of that. 
After SMG sold quite a bit less than I expected, I thought that Mario platformers were seeing a decline, as the genre itself had been doing for over 10 years. I remember agreeing with someone that a 2D Mario Platformer would sell around 10 million. In other words, roughly the same as Super Mario Galaxy. 
I later looked at the numbers a bit more carefully, and for the past half year (at least) I've been certain that NSMB Wii would sell more. I always saw it as a possibility than NSMB Wii would sell a mere 5-7 million, as I saw 2D platformers on recent consoles as something unproven.  Essentially: Before SMG launched, I probably would have thought they would sell equally well, or perhaps I would have given NSMB Wii a slight edge. After SMG semi-flopped in my eyes, I thought that NSMB Wii would most likely sell ~ 10 million, or slightly more than SMG. Then, I looked a bit more at the numbers and saw just how large an edge NSMB Wii would get. However, I still had some doubts that it would sell a lot. 
Khuutra said:
ioi said:
I'm looking at the possibility of hitting 30m...

Jesus Christ

Care to make a prediction for how this game's sales will stack up against Mario Kart Wii's after 18 months?
 

 

He rarely elaborates on his views on the forums (and I won't bother questioning why), but seeing as he looks at "the possibility of it hitting 30 million" he probably believes it to sell around the same as Mario Kart Wii. That game is, after all, looking at (most likely) just shy of that.

Personally, I'd say the question you should ask yourself is: How much will New Super Mario Bros. Wii sell in 2010? If you expect it to sell more in 2010 than Mario Kart Wii did in 2009, New Super Mario Bros. should be at least slightly ahead after 18 months (aligned launches)

(I wrote this just after you posted it. However,my internet connection is currently down, so it will be posted whenever it returns)