I figured NSMBW would appeal to much the same audience as Mario Kart, and quite likely beyond as many 'lapsed' gamers, especially women, have fond memories of playing Mario 2D games but haven't played or grown to love the 3D version.
The mulitplayer is genius because it means you can suck and still enjoy the game and progress as long as you have a capable friend/child/spouse to play with (or use the walkthrough mode if you don't)
SMG has basically sold to the Nintendo faithful and a little beyond. SMG2 will sell to only the Nintendo faithful and probably only manage 6m especially if it's harder to play.