Come on, step out and be honest. There is no shame here: we have all been wrong, in our own times.
I will admit that I was not sure, and have chosen option 4 as a result. I underestimated Mario. It happens to the best of us.
What reasons did you have for assuming what you did? Be honest, and speak fully of your reasoning.
....
Yes, I know New Super Mario Bros Wii has not outsold Mario Galaxy yet, but it will by the time the end-of-year numbers come in, and that's more than enough for me to make this poll.
Clarification:
For those unfamiliar with the particular colloquialisms in the English, "Well DUUUUUUHHHHHHH" is a smarmy way of saying "Yes, you daft fool"