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theprof00 on 29 December 2009
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jarrod said:
theprof00 said:
jarrod said:
theprof00 said:
Kasz216 said:

Also, it should be noted, that while you think Blu-Ray will eventually vindicate Sony... there are a LOT of hurdles in the way. More then you'd think.

Blu-ray is STILL well behind it's predicted targets in 2007... and the loss of China is a HUGE loss. CBHD could actually become the leading world wide format leader... just from China.

There are additional worries that China may export the format to other poorer nations. Which, said nations may gladly accept, sick of being poorer yet still paying more on a per unit basis.

CBHD is scary because Toshiba just sold them the HD-DVD technology for an incremental fee. They don't even pay royalties per disc.

It really was a sly move by Toshiba.

http://news.cnet.com/8301-17938_105-10303224-1.html

I really don't care to know all the details. BR will be the standard. That's all I care to know.

That is the trend and the current and future market.

 

CBHD is a complete joke. It is yet another last stand by the DVD Forum to block BR. Revenue on movies in America is roughly 4 times higher here than the same movie in china on cbhd. CBHD is only viable in poor countries and will never takeover over here, the format war is done, it's been done. CBHD has Warner and Universal and Nat Geo as far as Hollywood goes. But of course, Universal, just before the death of HDDVD, was the ONLY studio supporting HDDVD, everyone else had pulled out.

The push for CBHD by a vocal minority only contributes to market confusion and will raise prices. Isn't it painfully obvious that people are saying "the format war is back on"? They've said it for so many formats already, CBHD is simply the next format in line. It simply isn't feasible to contest BR, when you're talking a difference of 10,000 western titles compared to a few hundred, and a difference in revenue of 15-20$.

I agree, the format war's pretty much settled (at least in the west and Japan/Korea), but to say CBHD's only viable in "poor countries" is bit off the mark.  China's the richest country in the world, by a gigantic margin, and they've managed to weather the global recession better than anyone (Communism can save Capitalism, who knew?).  They also have a huge fucking audience alone, not to mention other fast emerging economies that the format's targeting (India, Brazil, etc)... it's entirely possible (and even probable) that globally, CBHD will manage a higher total userbase than BD.  Not that it matters much to us, the market will still break down in BD's favor in any nations likely to influence our tastes.

Yes, sorry, my frustration over 4 year old arguments got the better of me. What I meant about "poorer countries" was that there is a huge market that cannot yet afford BR. In that case, supporting cbhd is a smart business investment as long as your studio has something valuable to offer. However, CBHD will never challenge BR in NA,Europe,Japan.

 

EDIT: haha, I notice you editted your post to include a lot of "fucking" lol.

Yeah true.  Even DVD didn't take off in emerging markets until late due to the high royalty structure.

I view CBHD as basically the new VCD in a sense.  Low cost makes it really attractive option for the right markets, but the powerbases in America, Europe and Japan (ie: Hollywood and the big Electronics firms) will fight it's adoption anywhere else at any cost.  It's does hurt BD in a way though, as they likely planned to echo DVD's late term spread into these "secondary" markets eventually.

Ugh..you mentioned VCD which reminded me of SVCD which was Toshiba's secondary attack on BR after HDDVD failed....like I said. There's a long list of "competitors" that have already failed.

But yeah, it will be interesting to see how this pans out. I know that the BDA royalty drop was due in part to aggressively take the market, possibly to get into position to counter CBHD. Time will tell. Thanks for your input. Breath of fresh air, really.