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It would be impossible to say now. There are still far too many unknown things to take into consideration.

1. Just when exactly will it launch? July? September? December?
2. How much will it cost seperately?
3. Will it be bundled? How much will the bundle cost?
4. Will Microsoft address the issues with lag that have been reported?
5. Will Sony release a software update that allows the PlayStation Eye to mimic most of Natal's features?
6. What software will Natal be launched with? Will any be bundled?