I think Natal will be very succesful. Sort of like Microsoft going Nintendo. A lot of people are interested in it. Being able to play games without the use of a controller is cool. But it is the software that will sell it and Microsoft are the best software company in the world. So no doubt they have something to go with it that we have not seen. If that Mylo thing works like they say then that will be amazing, skynet anyone?
But in terms of hardware sales i don't think that will be the main factor for moving units. It is obvious a new 360 price cut will come into effect before the next year is out. It would of been 2 years+ since the last one. If it drops £50 again to between £79 and £99 then that will murder anything out there. If a £250 PS3 goes up against a £99 360 then it will be a masacre.
For me i see 2009 as the year of the PS3. I know people have said that for years but i think the games it released and the new model and price cut made it it's year. The PS3 did fantastic in 09.
I see the same for 2010 for the 360. On paper i prefer the 360 games coming out to the PS3 games. God of War and Gran Turismo are the must have games. Where as 360 has a lot of varied games and of course a Halo title, which is a license to print money.
At the start of 2010 numbers will slow down a lot such as how the industry works. We will go back to exactly how 2008 started after the previous PS3 drop and see a gap worldwide of roughly 10k-40k per week. Then as the months progress that gap will get smaller and smaller.
Then at E3 Microsoft will come out guns blazing and it will be history repeating itself from the holiday's of 2008. At the end of 2010 i expect the console gap to have gone back to 7m at least and most likely around 10m.
Japan is currently the country really helping the PS3 sales. They have been sparked to life with the price cut and release of Final Fantasy. But looking ahead the only game i can see appealing to Japan that will help sell hardware is of course Gran Turismo. But when that goes it will leave a pretty empty games list for Japan. There are no titles on the horizon that will shift hardware like FF and GT. So i have no doubt after that period Japan will fall back into the pattern it has had for much of the year with sales being down by quite a bit. I was right about that at the start of this year (still waiting for that apology ;) ) and i'm sure i will be right at the end of the next.
Which then leaves Europe. PS3 has done very well here since the price drop. But UK at least has not really seen the sales for the PS3 like the rest of europe has. In fact the 360 is still outselling the PS3 each week. Last week 360 outsold PS3 by nearly 10k. That is off the back of the price of the 360 actually increasing recently. The UK is now the 2nd biggest games market in the world. If Microsoft hold onto sales in UK and in NA then it is going to make it very difficult for the PS3. As numbers decrease as the year progresses it will most likely see at some point a cheaper 360 start to catch the more expensive PS3. As i said before i expect numbers to pretty much be even before we get to summer. But then the final 6 months of the year i expect 360 sales to swamp PS3 sales. Simply because it will be a lot cheaper. Sony have just made a new model and cut its price. They are losing around $50 per PS3 sold. They will not be cutting the price again anytime soon.
So i fully expect at E3 Microsoft to come out with a load of new games we don't know about yet but create a 360 bundle with Natal for £99. Being the first to that magic number will see a sales explosion because that is major cheap.
As soon as Gran Turismo and God of War are out it leaves very little for the end of the year. Where as Microsoft have made it so their big guns are around xmas time again i.e Halo reach, Fable 3 etc. I would not be surprised at all to see Gears of War 3 being announced for the holidays next year either.
So i would take a guess shipments for 2010
PS3 - 9m
360 - 12m
Wii - 17m
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