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routsounmanman said:
I think install base affects mostly games with wide appeal, games like MKWii, NSMBWii, CoD, Pro Evolution, Guitar Hero, Madden, etc. Thus, most of these games increase their sales as the userbase expands.

I'm pretty sure if Konami released MGS5 tommorrow, it would sell exactly the same as MGS4, there would be no penetration. That's why we see games like SSBM, FFXIII, etc reach dizzy attach rates.

I totally agree with this.  It's partially why PES, Mingol or Musou have toppled in Japan, but MGS and FF have held fairly steady with only slight drops.

I'd also argue that GT casts a wider net than something like FF though.  It has it's hardcore gearheads, but GT's always sold well to the casual/mainstream.  I think it's much more likely to fall into the "tumble" category, though it'll still amass impressive sales.