koffieboon said:
So currently only 4 people have outperformed the average at the moment? Btw, is this just a normal average or did you also take out a few outliers? |
It is the (mean) average of everyone's predictions, then added in as a new contestant.... so for example half of us could be over predicting, while the other half could be underpredicting by the same amount, this would produce a "Mr.Average" score of 0... so in that case nobody would beat him.
For comparison, here are the averages of peoples scores (let's call them Mrs. Average 
)
| Mrs.Average | Wii | PS3 | X360 | DS | PSP | total |
| week 1 | 8.5 | 6.6 | 7.5 | 31.0 | 14.2 | 67.8 |
| week 2 | 8.7 | 6.7 | 19.4 | 34.6 | 17.0 | 86.4 |
| week 3 | 11.6 | 7.6 | 22.1 | 22.7 | 16.0 | 79.9 |
| week 4 | 14.7 | 8.1 | 9.3 | 11.7 | 20.1 | 63.9 |
| week 5 | 9.2 | 24.0 | 13.8 | 27.6 | 21.0 | 95.5 |
| week 6 | 21.8 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 13.4 | 16.8 | 72.1 |
| week 7 | 47.1 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 16.3 | 16.0 | 97.1 |
Errm little note though, this was done quickly so I didn't include Jadakiss (would have needed to make extra space in the spreadsheet and do different calculations for consoles and handhelds) wheras Mr.Average does include Jadakiss for each console (but obviously not for the handhelds)
Something that it is pretty obvious now that I noticed it, but not something I thought about before:
Mr.Average will be close to Mrs.Average whenever the majority (or all) of us are either aboveor below the reality. So for instance the first 3 weeks of the DS, or the last two weeks for Wii, most or all of us were on one side of what the VGC numbers turned out to be, and thus Mr and Mrs Average both show roughly the same figure.
