Why is this in the Microsoft discussion?
Should be in sales or gaming...or at least Sony discussion
Anyway...
Here is my up to the minute view of the market...
January 1st, 2008 will show:
Wii - ~20 million (+/- 5%)
Xbox 360 ~16 million (+/- 5%)
PS3 ~ 8 million (+/- 5%)
Americas:
Xbox 360 will be ahead of Wii for at least another 6 months in the Americas. Wii will continue to catch up, as demand will not be slowing in Q1 (new Sonic, Wii Fit, Brawl). PS3 will, at some point, see Metal Gear Solid 4, Little Big Planet, Grand Theft Auto IV. 360 has Banjo, Halo Wars, Too Human, and other big games for 2008.
Still, just in the USA, PS3 is going to be about 6 million behind Xbox 360 entering 2008. Wii will be 1-1.5 million behind Xbox 360 in the USA.
There are two trends right now in the USA - the huge games allocated toward catering to a decreasingly significant hardcore audience, and the explosion of games that anyone can play and get addicted to playing. I'd say there are 10 million gamers out there who will buy 10+ games every year for their console(s). However, there are 40 million+ gamers and potential gamers who will buy under 5 games a year for their console(s). Maybe 50% of the hardcore audience that is on the current systems is on 360 (60%), Wii (25%), and PS3 (15%) already. In other words, 3 million on 360, 1.25 million on Wii, and .75 million on PS3. The other five million more are still on PS2 and DS and PSP.
Among the explosion of games that anyone can play, these are the games that add the most value to a console: Guitar Hero III, Rockband, Wii Play, Wii Sports, Smash Brothers, Halo 3, GTA IV, Mario Kart, Wii Fit, and Brain Training are the most important right now. Nine of those are on consoles, so lets look at the break down:
Wii - GHIII/Wii Play/Wii Sports/Smash/Mario Kart/Wii Fit
360 - GHIII/Rockband/Halo 3/GTA IV
PS3 - GHIII/Rockband/GTAIV
PS2 - GHIII/Rockband
With Rockband, Halo 3, GTA IV, GHIII and a larger library of games, 360 is doing a much better job of appealing to the mass-market American gamer. Wii has an equally large number of mass market games (GHIII, Wii Play, Wii Sports, Wii Fit) - with two others that will pull in some mass market, alot of Nintendo gamers, and some traditional gamers. Given the sales of GHIII on Wii, Rockband will likely be ported over at some point as well. That suggests that except for those who buy consoles for sports games, the mass market will eventually choose Wii over 360, and already is choosing it over PS3.
In terms of feeding the enormous appetite of hardcore gamers, 360 should eventually end up with 6-7 million of the 10 million USA hardcore. PS3 and Wii will end up with around 4 million each, as there will be considerable overlap between the three based on greater than usual differentiation.
The real question is how will Sony appeal to more mass market gamers?
I'd say they will drop the price for GTA IV, since thta game has mass market and hardcore appeal. A $300/$400 PS3 could net Sony Xbox 360-2006 sales in 2008. In turn though, Microsoft would probably drop the price to at least $200/$300/$400 to keep pace with Sony. With a bigger library, many would choose 360 at that pricing. But for those choosing between PS3 & 360 who have no real preference, equal pricing would probably favor Sony.
A $300 PS3 price point for most of 2008 in the USA would probably see Sony match 360 sales in 2008 (probably about 4-5 million units each). Depending on the success of Wii Fit, Wii will probably sell 7-10 million units in the USA in 2008, especially if there is a price cut to $200 for Mario Kart or Smash.
Entering 2009, PS3 could start outselling 360 if the big games keep coming, and Blu-Ray becomes mainstream. However, the 360 lead entering the year would remain around 6 million units. By the end of the year it could be down to 5-5.5 million, but its hard to imagine PS3 selling over 20 million units in the USA.
The USA market will probably end up at like 40/30/18 (Wii/360/PS3) this generation, while the PS2 generation finished at like 40/17/11/4 (PS2/Xbox/GC/DC).
Japan:
PS3 has been ahead of Xbox 360 since its launch month. In Japan, if this lead were to increase to 5-6 million units by the end of the generation, then Sony could offset the 360 in the USA. While that's possible, PS3 is about where PS2 was in 7 weeks. In other words, its currently selling 6-7 times slower. If PS2 ends up at 24 million in Japan, that would put PS3 at a max of 4 million in Japan. PS3 has been selling better lately in Japan, but still 3-5 times slower than PS2 in Japan. Final Fantasy XIII should be a million seller soon after it comes out, as PS3 will likely be in the 3 million-4 million range by then. I'd guess PS3 will reach 5-7 million in Japan - but thats only a 3.5-6 million lead over 360 - which could sell up to 1.5 million units in Japan. That may not offset the USA. Wii could have higher lifetime Japanese totals than either console by the end of 2008.
Others:
That means sales will come down to others for PS3 in terms of over taking the 360. The UK should play out similarly to the USA, which bodes well for 360 and Wii but won't harm Sony too much. However, France is strong for Nintendo and Microsoft, and fairly week for Sony. The other markets will have to make up the difference. Currently, that is the case, and PS3 is outselling the 360 in Europe. A wider catering to European tastes should allow PS3 to outsell 360 in Europe, as long as it is of comparable pricing, at least for its first full year. Still, 360 has a big lead here as well - in the millions. In much of Europe though, the PS2 remains the console of choice (or Wii). By the time users upgrade, they will likely look to pricing and exclusive content and that should benefit Nintendo in many markets, and 360 in the UK & France. Elsewhere, PS3 should take second place or first place in the few oddball places like Spain that are out of step with the rest of the world trends. With the lead and UK strength, I'd put this as a virtual PS3-360 tie in sales. That would mean, that despite the games, PS3 will end up in third worldwide, with sales between 40 and 50 million.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
