PS3 vs 360

[Dolla Dolla]

This is my first post to this group. I've been reading for a while, and just joined recently to start some discussions and get some thoughts.

First: we all know the Wii is in a league of its own right now. It is expanding the gaming universe, including more people than ever before, which is good for the business, in general.

When I think of the Wii, I always imagine it as the gateway drug to the gaming world. People play the Wii, become interested in gaming in general, then look for what else the gaming world has to offer. This strategy makes the Wii, most likely, the console winner of this gen.

But what about the 360 and the PS3?

Right now, I don't own any next gen systems, but I've played them all. My sister's boyfriend has the PS3, a bunch of friends and my brother have the 360, and I have another friend who owns the Wii. I currently have a PS2, DS Lite, and a PSP.

The PS3 is struggling. The release list is skimpy with big names not coming out until July with LAIR, and in August/September, Heavenly Sword, I believe.

The 360 is clobbering everyone with their software offering. The attach rates are through the roof. Early reports are in that the Elite 360 has sold out at many places (Amazon, Circuit City, Best Buy, Costco, etc). 

The 360 should have a decent April NPD showing when the Elite is counted, but I think the PS3 will suffer. The Wii should easily do another 1 million Worldwide, perhaps 3/400,000 in the NA alone.

At what point do you think Sony will make a turn-around and start gunning to take marketshare away from the 360? Or, do you think more and more developers will go cross-platform between the two? The biggest exclusive the PS3 holds is MGS4. If they lose that, I think the PS3 won't ever catch the 360 in NA.

The performance of the 360 in NA/Japan is nearly identical to the performance of the PS3 in NA/Japan for March. The difference is miniscule, making Europe Sony's safehouse. How long can they survive with this breakdown?

Thoughts, rebuttals, etc.?

By the way, I enjoy this forum and finally decided to take part in it. I look forward to the discussions.