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2012.... I don't think anyone's going to buy a next gen system next year, or the year after if they just bought one the year before. Also, usually when new systems are announced, they aren't released until the following year, or so.

It has to be a time when the customers are willing to make the shift, not while they're still getting use out of the stuff they just got, they'll be less likely to buy. Besides, people haven't even maxed out the PS3 yet, so, we haven't even seen the best of this gen yet... Give it some time... 2012 at the earliest. Keep in mind that sony always releases a new system every six years.