Alan Wake is limited by its genre. Survival Horror games haven't pulled big numbers since the ps1 days, and even then it was only Resident Evil that performed all that well. Resident Evil 5 sold quite nicely, but it's not really a survival horror game, and it has brand recognition spanning three generations.
Alan Wake will probably be a very good game, possibly the best survival horror title this gen by a nice margin, and it should be marketed pretty nicely by Microsoft. This should help the game to perform abnormally well for its genre, but I can't see it getting much higher than 2 million lifetime, if it even gets that high. That's more than double the sales of Dead Space on 360, but with the coverage Alan Wake is given as opposed to Dead Space, and the inevitable marketing campaign by Microsoft, I think its possible.
In the meantime, Killzone 2 will slowly inch itself closer to 3 million. It may never get there, but it'll be close.
Somewhat off topic: It's somewhat ironic how much crap Killzone 2 got for its lengthy development time when Alan Wake was announced at the same time.
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