Soriku said:
mrstickball said:
Soriku said:
Two things.
1. ToG will obviously beat out ToH's first week which puts it at a better position legs wise.
2. Bundles won't account for a latge part of sales, but they do skew things in favor.
Considering this, I don't see why the game would stop at 250k.
Can we wait for first week sales? What if the game ends up selling similarly to ToV's first week increase and ends up selling 170k-180k instead? Arguing over first day sales is bullshit.
|
1) How does beating a game out for first week mean it will have better legs? If anything, it is the exact opposite: Larger games tend to be front loaded. Don't tell me you know this. Furthermore, we're comparing DS titles against console titles. The average Tales game on the DS sold about 50% of its LTD after its first week, compared to 35% on PS2 or Wii. What would make you think that Graces suddenly changes course and preforms less like the PS2 iterations?
2) How many bundles? Again, really want to know this. Bundles do not help legs. Furthermore, there is a very finite number of them so we may see an extra 10-20k in sales.
Okay, lets go over every Tales console game to point out exactly why I don't think that Graces is outside the norm with other major franchises launching (and to prove the insanity of your statement):
- Tales of Destiny 2 launched the week after Pokemon Ruby/Sapphire (1.2m units sold week 1). SD Gundam Generation 2 launched the same week to 355k units sold which was a PS2 title, also. Destiny 2 sold 65% of its LTD value on week 1.
- Tales of Rebirth launched the same week that Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater launched. Also, Dragon Quest VIII was 4 weeks old which is a massive comparable. Rebirth sold 62% of its LTD value on week 1. (Interestingly enough, DQVIII outsold Rebirth on the very next week, according to VGC)
- Tales of the Abyss launched the week prior to Kigndom Hearts 2. It sold 66% of its LTD value on week 1.
- Tales of Destiny launched with no other major PS2 game the same week (it was the week that the Wii came out), and no comparable RPG competition the week after. It sold 70% of its LTD value on week 1.
So I must ask: Is Pokemon, Metal Gear Solid, DQVIII, and KH2 remote comparables for FFXIII and NSMB:Wii? I mean, the most frontloaded Tales game had no direct competition on its platform which should help one make the argument that having other major titles launch near isn't the real key indicator of a titles' first week performance. Not in Japan, at least.
|
First of all, what the hell did you do with your post?
1. Both ToH and ToG released in the holiday season. With Christmas, games have legs. How many times do I have to repeat this? How often do you see games around Christmas time follow patterns of games releasing during another part of the year? I shouldn't have to tell you that. You haven't seen PS2 Tales sales have you? Go look at them and look at their legs. Almost all of them released around the holidays too, or at the very least at the end of November.
Did you read anything I said about Tales games? Tales games during Christmas have no legs. Look at the data yourself. Did Christmas help Kingdom Hearts 2 legs? Dragon quest? Tales of The Aybss, Destiny or Rebirth? I agree that Christmas gives games better legs, typically, but we see that franchise RPGs are the exception to the rule.
2. 10k-20k extra sales would help against 250k.
Let's assume ToG sells 170k or 180k week one if it follows similarish patterns to ToV PS3 or Tales of Versus. If those sales are 60% of ToG's sales it would be closer to or at 300k LTD than 250k. With a bundle adding even 10k-20k more sales it would skew things compared to the others that didn't have bundles. If it sells 156k+ sales would still be higher than 250k LTD with the 60% sales FW.
And we still don't know if bundles are counted or not.
Ah, but bundles don't help legs. They help initial week sales. If Graces sells ~150k units first week plus 20k bundles for a total of 170k, it won't see extra legs based on the bundles, but on the actual software. So instead of selling 283,000 units (170k / 0.6) it would sell closer to 270k ((150k / 0.6) + 20k)
|
