Alright, time for the Tales analysis. Here's a table for all the Tales games I could find data for:
Tales of | Release date | First day | First week | LTD (VGC) |
Vesperia (PS3) | 9/17/09 | 147k | 217k | 334k (still selling) |
VS. (PSP) | 8/6/09 | 89k | 133k | 217k (still selling) |
Radiant Mythology 2 (PSP) | 1/29/09 | 135k | 213k | 330k |
Hearts (DS) | 12/18/08 | 121k | 140k | 251k |
Vesperia (X360) | 8/7/08 | 71k | 108k | 186k |
Symphonia: DotNW (Wii) | 6/26/08 | 120k | 137k | 216k |
Innocence (DS) | 12/6/07 | 76k | 104k | 262k |
I bolded the titles that launched in December, and used VGC for LTD (dunno where to look for Famitsu).
I guess you can hope for a pattern like Innocence, though that's probably pushing it. If I had to guess ToG's lifetime now (really not much to go by atm), I'd say 270k. I'm assuming it'll outdo Hearts, since this game launched earlier in the month.
Some older December Tales from VGC data:
Radiant Mythology (PSP, 2006) - 112k FW, 234k LTD
Abyss (PS2, 2005) - 378k FW, 570k LTD
Rebirth (PS2, 2004) - 385k FW, 589k LTD
Anyway, I hope its first week surprises us. If it turns out to be something like 170k, it still has a chance at overtaking Vesperia (PS3).