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Pineapple on 10 December 2009
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noname2200 said:
Pineapple said:

Will Wii Fit Plus make it? Well, it could easily be compared to Wii Fit from last year.

Wii Fit + looks to be selling slightly more than Wii Fit did in the equivalent time-period last year, in Americas. From here till the Week ending 3rd January, Wii Fit sold 1.1 million, Wii Fit + thus looks at 1.1-1.4 million, or so.

Roughly the same seems to be the case in Others, were Wii Fit + has sold pretty much 250K each week for the last 5 weeks. That's more than Wii Fit did, as it ranged from 150-210K in that period. Wii Fit sold nearly 1.3 million here, so 1.3-1.6 million seems a likely number for Wii Fit Plus.

Wii Fit Plus should also rack in 300-400K in Japan.

 

That leads to 2.7-3.4 million expected for the next month. That puts Wii Fit's total at 6.3-7 million.

Thus, Wii Fit Plus needs 3-3.7 million.

If we (yet again) go look at Wii Fit, it sold 4.1 million in Q1 2009. Keep in mind that at this time, Wii Fit had been out for over 6 months.

Wii Fit Plus looks to have a stronger holiday, and it's also a newer game than Wii Fit was. It should manage to sell 3.5 million +.

 

All in all, I think Wii Fit + will sell 10 million by the end of Q1 2010, whereas Iwata was most likely talking shipped.

Fine post as always, Oyv. I was evidently too lazy to compare Wii Fit to Wii Fit+, hence my pesimissm. At the same time though, I have to recall that Wii Fit was severely supply-constrained, while it seems easy enough to pick up Plus.

I haven't fully thought out the implications of that though: does it mean that Plus will continue to see better-than-Fit-sales? Or does this prevent pent-up demand, and thus mean that its long term sales will decline? I know of at least one poster on this site who kept reiterating the latter claim for all of the Wii's big games (and the Wii itself, for that matter). I didn't buy it then, and I don't buy it now, but in truth I have no way to definitively strike down his thesis. All I have is a mountain of circumstancial data that argues otherwise.

 

I might have been over-estimating Wii Fit Plus here. It has few things going for it that Wii Fit didn't, and it has quite a few facts going against it.

Essentially, the only advantage Wii Fit Plus has over Wii Fit, is that it has a larger installbase. However, this is greatly outweighed by

- An increase in competition on the machine. Wii Fit had nearly only Mario Kart Wii to compete with. Wii Fit Plus has Mario Kart Wii (although weakened through time), New Super Mario Bros. Wii and Wii Sports Resort. That's definitely tougher competition.

- The Wii isn't selling any more software. None of the major machines are, and thus, the advantage of a larger installbase isn't an advantage at all.

- Momentum. Wii Fit built its own momentum, and carried that out. Wii Fit Plus started out on a used momentum, something which is incredibly hard to improve upon.

 

All in all, I think you and c0rd are correct - I over-estimated Wii Fit Plus a bit, by comparing it to Wii Fit. 10 million shipped by the end of the financial year seems likely, 10 million sold might be a bit too much.