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jarrod on 10 December 2009
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Noobie said:
ioi said:

If you look at these two graphs:

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=GBA&reg3=Japan&start=37927&end=38004

http://vgchartz.com/hwcomps.php?cons1=GC&reg1=Japan&cons2=PS2&reg2=Japan&cons3=GBA&reg3=Japan&start=38291&end=38368

Holiday sales from 2003 and 2004. Due to leap years etc, these two years fall closest to 2009 in terms of where the dates fall so you should be able to compare and see which weeks you can expect boosts.

In both 2003 and 2004, you can see that the next 3 weeks see consecutive large increases for both GC and GBA - exactly as I would expect to see with Wii and DS. Normal Wii sales this week would be about 55k so I'd expect something like 90k next week, then 150k the week after then peaking at over 200k in the week leading up to christmas. Now with Tales of Graces and NSMB driving hardware I expect more like 110k, 160k and 210k ish - same pattern as in my initial predictions that were made a few months back. What is interesting is that the week after (so week ending 3rd Jan) is that PS2 sees a large rise while GBA and GC see large drops in 2004 and are roughly flat in 2003. 2004 isn't actually the best example for GC and GBA as DS had just released which started to eat into GBA sales and GC was essentially dead so sales dropped off far more dramatically after the 26th Dec than I would expect Wii to this year, but you can learn things from these patterns.

So for PS3, you can see that Sony sees much smaller boosts in the next 3 weeks than Nintendo historically so I'd expect maybe 70k next week then 95k then maybe 125k for the week ending 27th Dec. With the release of FFXIII this will be more like 75k, 175k and 135k vs 110k, 160k and 210k for Wii. The week ending 3rd Jan will be interesting though - I could see both at around 150k potentially as Nintendo drops and Sony rises again slightly.

It will be interesting, but I think those expecting 250k+ in Final Fantasy week could be a little disappointed - 175k would be impressive imo.

I have just updated my thread where you predicted holiday+jan sales for Wii n PS3 here...

http://www.vgchartz.com/forum/thread.php?id=88468&page=1

and i was seeing that mostly u r pretty accurate predicting numbers for PS3 atleast in the last couple of weeks. But for Wii you are constantly over guessing 20% to 40% than the final numbers, like this week you expected Wii to do 155k and it has done only 100k which is quite reasonable difference.. So i think 75k, 175k n then 135k look pretty reasonable for PS3 to me but expecting Wii to hit 255k doesn't... or even over 200k looks unachievable this time to me.

Past trends are always there to be broken sometime.. so i think this is the time when it is going to be broken for Wii.

Yeah, I actually agree.  PS3 figures look good but Wii figures look too high... it's not going to match 2007.  ioi's original Wii predictions look better imo.