Race is on - 360 vrs PS3 (holiday '07)

[shams]

MikeB said:

@ shams

Last year at the beginning of the PS3's launch I said the PS2 would be the big winner for christmas 2006 (I was right with regard to that one) and expected the PS3's first real sales victory worldwide over the XBox 360 for christmas 2007, I still think so, as data so far seems to back up my expectations.

(But I didn't expect the PS3 to outsell the Wii in Japan like it currently does, I always thought Japan would turn PS3 as soon as Metal Gear Solid 4 and / or Final Fantasy XIII hit the market, now I wonder if I will be correct or not, not that the PS3 is performing considerably above expectations, the Wii is performing below my previous expectations (Mario Galaxy doesn't seem to push the system as much as I thought). Monster Hunter 3 cannot come soon enough as HDTV penetration increases IMO it will only get increasingly difficult for Nintendo.)

Well, I disagree completely.

I still think the US is the biggest market for gaming, and the 360 has a solid hold there - and a significant advantage over the PS3. I think this margin will be strong enough to beat any offset in Japan/Europe.

...

And as for "...PS3 to outsell the Wii in Japan like it currently does...":

Come on - lets be fair. SONY were desperate, and have pulled pretty much every trick out of the book that they could find:

 - new colour
 - price drop
 - new model (cheaper, with no BC)
 - bundle with significant software

...etc...

All of this comes at the cost of profits. Sure - if Sony don't care about money, they could probably dominate the world market! But it won't last for long.

And to counter all this? Nintendo hasn't done a thing - they don't need to. The Wii is *still* selling out, and they have the luxury to divert as many Japan Wii units to the US as they see fit. No price cut, no bundle, no new colours - nothing. They still have all these options up their sleeves, and they can execute whenever they see fit.

The PS3 install base in Japan is 1.3m - the Wii almost 4m (Wii:PS3 3:1). If anything, the sales of the Wii in Japan were probably stronger than Ninty originally expected - and they knew this fall to "normal" levels would always happen.

If the PS3 starts outselling the Wii by 2:1 or 3:1 - then they might start caring. That gap of 2.7m units will not be closed in a hurry (with the PS3 beating the Wii for 2 weeks by around 50k combined).

So far, the sales patterns are exactly the same as the DS:PSP - and I don't see any reason why this will change. The PSP had a nice boost when the new model was launched as well - and even outsold the DS for a few weeks.

And I personally think Ninty is much more interested in the DS than they are the Wii. Its more "down their alley", less competition - and future consoles are likely to be closer to the DS rather than the Wii (i.e. moving to handheld models).

...

HDTV is obviously not a factor in this at all. Time and time again, the Japanese are choosing graphically weaker consoles (and handhelds) over the stronger ones. If anything - its the other way around. 

Its also interesting to compare these:

http://vgchartz.com/japweekly.php?date=39404&console=PS3&maker=&disp=Japanese+Name&boxartz=1

http://vgchartz.com/japweekly.php?date=39404&console=Wii&maker=&disp=Japanese+Name&boxartz=1

There are 7 Wii titles than have outsold the best selling PS3 title. Couple this with the fact that most PS3 titles cost more to make than Wii titles (and need to sell more units to break even) - and it doesn't paint a rosy picture for PS3 development.

...

Finally - lets not forget that the Wii made its mark in the off season. When sales of the 360/PS3 dropped back to non-holiday levels, the Wii was still going strong. If Nintendo can pull that off for a 2nd year in a row - there is absolutely no stopping them, and the nature of the industry will be changed forever.