Hmmm let's see. Final fantasy X launched in Japan in July 2001. The install base in Japan at that time was 5 million. It launched with 1.9 million in sales, eventually getting to just over 3 million. The weeks before FF X released it was selling in the 80-90Ks. The week of FF X release the sales spiked by an additional 75K over the previous week.
PS3 =/= PS2. But it's possible that PS3 sales in Japan since Slim and price cut will look more like PS2 sales than pre-slim PS3 sales.
PS3 sales seem to be rising quite nicely at the moment, the week before FFXIII week could see sales of about 65-70K. Given the install base for PS2 at the time of FFX is comparable (but slightly higher) than PS3 is now it's probably reasonable to expect a similar spike of about 75K (lower install base means possibly more FFXIII buyers who don't yet own a PS3, but likelihood is FFXIII will launch with lower software sales than FFX, so I'll call it even). Let's say pre-FFXIII week is 65K in sales (that's reasonable isn't it if this week is 50K with no substantial software and last week was 41K?), this should make FFXIII week hit 140K in PS3 sales.
If PS3 hits 150K plus on FFXIII launch in Japan then that will be a very impressive and overachieving result according to my analysis. Less than 120K could be seen as a bit underwhelming, and less than 100K would be quite poor. It'll need to be at least 100K if WW PS3 is to make 1 million that week.
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