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Interesting analysis, Pineapple.

I agree with all that Wii Fit + is the only one that may not make it to 10 million by the end of the FY.

I think it can manage the 10 million shipped, but not 10 million sold.

Recall that the Wii in Q1 2009 sold nearly 4.5 million. I doubt the Wii in 2010 will be able to match this, affecting software sales.