| eugene said: NO, cause the PS2 had 80% of the market share, the Wii gets about 45-50% on a weekly basis. |
When the GC and X-Box were released they sold pretty damn good.....I think weekly terms the PS2 was probably getting about 40% of the market worldwide weekly....a year later the x-box slowed a bit and another year later the GC had slowed considerably more, then both stopped selling.
You have to look at everything to compare, it doesn't work when you compare total end marketshare of last gen to the weekly of this gen.
Also that doesn't take into account market expansion....I mean what if the total market size doubled from last to this gen, that would mean 40% of the market would be more than 120 million anyway.
If the market grows by 50% (from 180mil to 270), and PS3/360 start to slow down a bit meaning Wii is consistently getting 55% of weekly share then it could end up with nearly 140 million.
Basically no one knows....If i were forced to bet on it i would put Wii at roughly 100-110 million, and PS3 and 360 combined taking a further 100 million between them....but the potential for the Wii is vast if all works out well (Blue Ocean, China/India etc) and although i don't forsee heights that John Lucas would sneer at for being too low, I think Wii could quite easily pass 200 million if things work out (again roughly 100M between the other two)
