What other system sellers does Microsoft have until Natal?

[Reasonable]

jarrod said:
I think there's issues of scale here. Frankly it doesn't make sense to me when someone says Halo Reach won't be a "system seller", then in the next breath say FFXIII will be a "sysetm seller" in Japan when the reality is FFXIII's JP hardware bump will probably be less than Reach's US hardware bump.

Microsoft has a lot of unknowns next year in Natal, and games like Alan Wake. 360's pretty well established so it's easy to assume people who want games like Halo, Crackdown, Mass Effect, Splinter Cell or Fable sequels already have the system, but then I'd counter that extremely rare you have one game that can singularly drive hardware significantly anyway. On 360, I'd say Halo 3 did it. On Wii there was Wii Sports, Wii Fit and now probably NSMBWii. I don't think PS3's ever really had one, though GT5 looks like it could come closest to that level (but still isn't a sure thing). DS had a few (Nintendogs, Brain-Age, NSMB, Pokemon), PSP didn't.

I think it's highly unlikely Reach will produce a larger spike in US than FF in Japan.  There has been no FF title at all on PS3 in Japan, therefore the spike is going to be large, whereas Halo 3 has already released on 360, so it is very likely the spike for Reach is going to be modest at best (based on historic performance).

That's why you're seeing the comments your are.  Unknowns are just that, unknowns.  You're guessing when trying to figure out what will happen.  Known titles you can look at the history.

In the end, only PS3 has major franchises still to make a major bow on the system, FF and GT5, all known major 360 franchises have already had a title released.