NJ5 said:
The gap between the Wii and PS3+360 combined is 3.56 million (i.e. smaller than the gap between PS3 and 360). For PS3 to get 25%, it has to sell one third of Wii and 360 combined. Right now the gap is 3 million.
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I'd add that the current trend is for the Wii marketshare to decrease, so the answer to the second question would be "infinite time".
Over the last 10 weeks we had
Console | Wii | PS3 | X360 |
Total
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4,728,270
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3,034,538
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2,075,725
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which amount to 48%, 31%, and 21% of the total sales respectively and show the recent trend. If we project the data from these last 10 weeks in the future - which is not realistic, of course - the PS3 would reach 25% in about 50 weeks.