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While NSMBWii are definitely in the low side of expectations especially after that preorder thread and the 1m+ first week predictions, it should nearly double it's first day sales when the week is over.
No comments in lifetime sales for now. It could be a long-lasting hit like NSMB-DS or Wii Fit and sell over 2.5m LT or be another MH3 and barely cross 1.5m.