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vanatos said:

It was purely their strategy and the market, both of which are completey analyzable and can be dissected.

The problem for me is that, as far as I remember (and please correct me if I'm wrong), Nintendo's own comments about the Wii before it's release didn't differ that much from what they said about the GC before it released. The difference being that they got it right the second time around.

On a different note: I think it's impossible, or at least very hard, to predict what will happen next gen.