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The OP makes the unreasonable assumption that Nintendo will succeed at entering the most demanding market exactly as well, as the other two getting the least demanding customers.

I think Nintendo has much better chances to win the next generation, because they are already full of money, and the new market is ther home, so they can, and WILL protect it at all costs (literally), while the other two could possibly, maybe, if the circumstances are promising, try to experiment with "casual" games, but leave that direction behind if it doesn't worth the cost.

Sony and Microsoft "revolution" would be risky and expensive.
On the other hand, for Nintendo "evolution" is the natural way to go, to become better and bigger.