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Heavy Rain will much more likely flop than Alan Wake. Heavy Rain is much more disturbing and graphic which will limit it's sales a lot, and also is basically a QTE game. Where Wake is just a shooter with a mystery atmosphere and nice visuals.

 

Plus theres the fact PS3 exclusives never sell that well  (at best they're slow burners) while 360 ones usually do. I mean, Uncharted 2 after the billions of internet threads and so many gifs of it posted by PS3 "fans"  that it singlehandedly (along with Killzone 2) caused global warming only did a little over 500k in it's first NPD...