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I would have to say 1 million for eash is a strong possibility. Sony has said mulitple times this is a big game for them, so I expect a bigger than normal advertising campaign. And with that it should sell around 1 million.

Alan Wake should do fine as well, I expect Microsoft to advertise this game as well, it is one of the big exclusive games they have. So I also expect it to hit 1 million.

I do think Alan Wake will have an easier time getting to 1 million but I still think that Heavy Rain can do it