I believe that the Sony Wand aka Sphere will fail to make any real impact. It really offers no significant differences from Nintendo's offering other than the PS3's horsepower and since casuals wouldn't care about that anyways it puts the PS3 at a major disadvantage. The Wii has better and more well known casual games and is $100 cheaper. In fact Sony's gameplan is the same kind of obvious "What the hell are they thinking?" that could easily be seen with the PSP Go and initial PS3 price point. Add to that Sony's very sloppy demonstration of the tech at this year's E3 and it's obvious they're making a half-assed attempt that is doomed to failure. The best that they can hope for is ports of Wii games that does nothing to differentiate its offering.
Natal on the other hand has a much better chance at success. It's very obvious to casuals that it's a different offering than what they can get on the Wii. It's also obvious that Microsoft is betting a lot more on this so you can bet that there is going to be significantly more advertising dollars and other money poured into the effort. I also believe that EA, Ubisoft, and Activision will show a lot more support for it since it is likely obvious to them that Microsoft is far more serious about taking on the Wii. Everyone can argue about the accuracy of the system but in the end if people can more easily feel like they're a part of the game it has the possibility of being a game changer. Add to that the fact that it's something new compared to Sony's offering and that alone should give it a lot more attention from the media.
