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1) attach rate is higher for cosoles that have been out longer and have more games.
2) had Wii sports not been bundled and Wii play not been included from the start, do you really think people would not have picked up a game with the Wii.
3) 360 has recently had 2 games bundled to it's most popular SKU (please correct me if i am wrong but i thought marvel and forza were for the 360 premium) which have increased recent weeks sales by 300k+ too.
4) although you state it, you seem to all but dismiss the fact that the Wii still doesn't have the same install base.... I am quite sure that any failed 360s don't add up to mean fewer active than Wiis.
5) your argument of people buying two 360s works just as well if not better for Wii, because it is cheaper, and as it is such a family console there are probably a good number of houses with one in the living room and one in some kids bedroom, meaning for the most part they only need one game for each console