NSMB Wii is going to dominate all regions, including Japan (thanks to 2 extra weeks of sales).
Remember, not only is it a recent release (new in Japan), but it's getting a holiday boost. CoD last year could barely outdo Mario Kart Wii's December when it was released 6 months earlier.
edit: Actually MW2 should outdo NSMB Wii in Americas, but NSMB Wii will win overall.