To start with, it's already almost certain to say PS4 will have NO backward combatibility. Why would they? They can just re-release some hit PS3 games on the PSN and make more money over it. And even if it is BC, no way they are putting on extra Cell cpu in there just to do that, that's way to expensive. So that's software emulation at best right there.
PS4 will be way cheaper than PS3, because what made the PS3 so expensive? Blu-Ray and Cell. Blu-Ray know is way cheaper to produce and no expensive Cell. So that's $399 at the most for PS4.
That sayd, 2012? Highly unlikely, Sony needs to make money first and can't affort to produce a completely knew right know. It would be a smart move marktershare wise though, and maybe if they can keep development cost really low by using a completely developed cpu, gpu etc. and Blu-Ray then maybe there is a slight chance.
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