Prediction game: Best selling games Nov + Dec

[shams]

shams said:

I think these are the contenders:

- SMG
- GH III (all platforms)
- WiiFit (looking at 1-1.5m sales in Japan in Dec alone)
- Mass Effect (biggest 360 title over holidays)
- Mario & Sonic (DS version delayed till '08...)
- CoD (not really sure about this, but it definitely has a chance)
- RE:UC (strong Japan + US release)
- Dynasty Warriors 5(?) (Japan release, big, big title - PS3 bundle and all)

I don't believe these titles will make the top#10:

- R&C, Uncharted (install base, not "harcore" titles? plus doesn't R&C release in October)
- Assassins Creed (will do well across all titles long term, but will be surprised if any single platform makes the top#10 - maybe 360)
- Rayman#2 (won't do the numbers, won't sell in Japan)
- Rockband (definitely not - this will do great *revenue* but crap short-term sales - its just to expensive)
- Halo3 (already sold most of its units in the US & Japan - might do another 500k in the US, but it will be old news by the time Xmas hits. I might be wrong though - still a chance of being one of the best 360 sellers, but just doubt it will make the top#10..?)

So my top#10 - remember that titles that sell well in BOTH Japan & US have a huge advantage here:

#1 - Super Mario Galaxy (Japan, US)
#2 - Mario & Sonic (Wii) (Japan, US)
#3 - Mass Effect (360) (US)
#4 - Call of Duty (360) (US)
#5 - WiiFit (Wii) (Japan)
#6 - Guitar Hero III (Wii) (US)
#7 - Guitar Hero III (360) (US)
#8 - Dynasty Warriors (PS3)
#9 - Guitar Hero III (PS2) (US)
#10 - Halo 3 (360) (US?)

Something like that anyway. DS titles excluded, WiiPlay/WiiSports/WiiZapper excluded. I think WiiZapper will *easily* make the list - maybe be #1 - if included.

I'm sure some big titles have been missed - not sure what though. Madden on PS2/360 might (?) creep in, etc.

Also - "The Simpsons" will be huge (across all platforms), but not sure when its releasing. Not sure if a single platform will make top#10.

Well, I can definitely make some adjustments now. Japan market seems to be considerably smaller than expected, and tracking of Europe seems to be helping.

GH3 (360) >> GH3 (PS3), GH3 (Wii)

Dynasty Warriors... what?

Mario & Sonic - closer to the end of the charts

RockBand might even make the top#10, based on current reports?

Simpsons = flop. RE:UC should do 500k over the holidays.

And the big one - Assassins Creed. Done much, much better than I expected. If the PS3 has a game make the top#10, it may well be AC.

New predicted chart:

#1 - Super Mario Galaxy (Japan, US)
#2 - Mass Effect (360) (US)
#3 - Call of Duty (360) (US)
#4 - Guitar Hero III (PS2) (US)
#5 - Assassins Creed (360) (US)
#6 - WiiFit (Wii) (Japan)
#7 - Guitar Hero III (Wii) (US)
#8 - Mario & Sonic (Wii) (Japan, US)
#9 - Halo 3 (360) (US?)
#10 - Assassins Creed (PS3) (US)

Could be a great holiday season for Activision - there isn't a single EA title in this top#10 (RockBand could get in?).

Mass Effect remains the last "wildcard" IMO - it could do 1m week#1 on the 360!

(EDIT - Mass Effect is now an EA game isn't it...oops!)

(EDIT2 - and great charts for the 360 potentially - 3 in top #5).