You can back into a number logically...
April 2009 to March 2010 Shipment Projection = 13m
April - Sept 09: 4.3m (Slim, $300)
April - Sept 08: 4.0m ($400)
Oct-Dec 08: 4.5m
Oct- Dec 09: ~6.7m
To hit 13m, Sony has to ship 6-7m this quarter...and 55% of that, roughly, will be in December since the seasonal factors tend be something like this:
Americas = Dec = Nov * 2, Nov = Oct * 2.5 (Americas = 40%)...Oct = 1, Nov = 2.5, Dec = 5
Others = Dec = Nov * 2, Nov = Oct * 1.5 (Others = 45%)...Oct = 1, Nov = 1.5, Dec = 3
Japan = Dec = Nov * 2.5, Nov = Oct (Japan = 15%)...Oct = 1, Nov = 1, Dec = 2.5
December PS3 sales roughly:
Others = 6.5m * 0.45 * (3/5.5) = 1.6m
Americas = 6.5m * 0.4 * (5/8.5) = 1.5m
Japan = 6.5m * 0.15 * (2.5/4.5) = 0.55m
I get 3.65m using that simple method. Its a bit of a funky way to get to a number but it doesn't seem miles out either.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
When there are more laws, there are more criminals.
- Lao Tzu
