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TheSource said:

NSMB DS did 910,000 week one. DS had a base of just 8m and had already saw a 3D Mario as Wii has when it came out....hardware was just starting to explode because of the DS Lite March launch. When NSMB DS launched it was May...but DS hw went from 176,000 to 290,000. Even a boost half as big would lift Wii from 30,000 to 90,000 or so. We're getting some reports in from Japan that NSMB Wii preorders are now substantially greater than NSMB DS preorders at the same point away from launch (~1.5 weeks) so it could be even more than a 60k lift. It could match the lift of NSMB DS if the game is more front-loaded because of the holidays. December 3 is also a time when Wii hardware would be rising anyway. Besides NSMB Wii though, there is also Samurai Warriors 3 - and that sucker has its own hardware bundle.

Basically, you have four lifts:

1) 2D Mario Audience Lift: NSMB Wii = 700k-1.3m week one

2) Big Core game Audience Lift: SW3 Wii = 100k+ week one

3) SW3 HW Bundle Lift: Seperate from people who are buying SW3 and other Wii games

4) Holiday Lifts: Wii has stabilized at 25k-30k post price drop and will rise alot at 20,000 Yen

 

1 is probably worth 50,000-75,000.

2 is probably worth 5,000-10,000.

3 is probably worth 5,000-15,000.

4 is probably worth 10,000-30,000.

 

Split it down the middle, and you get a 100,000 lift - putting Wii at ~130,000 (vs. 55k week one Dec 2008).

The following week, Winning Eleven Playmaker comes in another bundle and Tales of Graces launches. Combined with the holiday season that should keep sales flat or up. Should be enough momentum to carry Wii through December until Resident Evil and Tatsonoku vs. Capcom in January. Wii is going to be damn near double its previous December in Japan.

 

I was hoping Wii could make it over 100,000, but thought a console doing that much in japan is lot ( excliding 150,000 PS3 slim week one there ).  So 130K in that week for wii will be splendid,  those japs sure do love their 2d platformer.



Buying in 2015: Captain toad: treasure tracker,

mario maker

new 3ds

yoshi woolly world

zelda U

majora's mask 3d