I think there is a solution here and it is the fact that we are rapidly approaching a point where games do look good enough and AIs do react smart enough that people can't really complain any more. Obviously improvements will still be a big part of selling a new game and this means the industry runs the risk of growing stagnant but I think if we look at the movie industry we can see that they are in a similar situation and have been doing well even with gradual graphical increases over the years.
The next generation of consoles doesn't have to be the huge boost to raw power that this generation was. All it really has to do is stabilize and extend existing architecture while providing a reasonable boost to power. So on the hardware front things aren't so bad. But this translates directly to the software front because if the hardware is designed properly we might have the first situation where a new generation of hardware doesn't require a complete reworking of how to make software.
I think the increased budgets and cost are in part due to the fact that this level of detail is bleeding edge and very new territory which requires some of the best people to come in and pave new roads to do it properly. But as the experience is gained and shared by more programmers and designers I think the cost will come down as new tools and new approaches are developed that streamline the process. This is afterall a continual effort by most design studios to identify project hangups and work to alleviate them for future projects.
I still have to say I agree there is a risk that what you say could come to pass but smart and agile competitors should easily be able to avoid this downfall and that will leave more market from them to soak up as the slower companies die off.
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