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Chadius said:
Sega's been in the entertainment biz long enough to know the first year after launch settles everything.

Not really. The SNES came out almost 2 years after the Genisis, yet, it still bet the Genisis in sales by a fair margin. Granted, NES was still outselling Genisis prior to the SNES, but, meh. The PS2 has outsold the PS3 for pretty much the entire year.