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Halo 3 on its launch week was bought by 1/4 of all 360 owners and in 2 years was bought by 1/3 of all 360 owners.
using this pattern:
Halo Reach first week - about 10-12mln
Halo Reach LT - 18-20mln
since by the time Halo reach will be released there will be about 44-48mln 360s on the market.

realistically Halo Reach could sell 7-8mln on its launch week and within a year could reach about 15-16mln copies.