Gran Turismo 5, the first 20 million selling GT... maybe.

[Netyaroze]

I am arguing because I want him to see that his argumentation is flawed. In the End there is no reason why to see it that way except of his opinion.

lets recount

january 2010 PS3---> 30 Mio
january 2011 PS3---> 42-44 Mio (12-14 Mio)
january 2012 PS3---> 52-56 mio (10-12 Mio)
january 2013 PS3---> 60-66 Mio (8-10 Mio) (Why January because we get the sales from the holiday season in January Its factual December)

The average is 275K ? No it isnt you calculate completly flawed. You forget that the last 2 months in the year equals 40-50% of the years sales.

And you count from NOW on, but after Christmas it will be 30 Mio. The PS3 will have atleast the same christmas as the Xbox360 had last year even if it has higher sales this year then the Xbox360 last year. It will be atleast 30 Mio.

In January 2010 when the PS3 stands at 30 Mio it needs just a weekly average of 192307 consoles per Week to reach the 60 Mio until 12/31/2012. And even if it goes significantly lower throughout the year the last 2 months will make up the deficit. I will give you an example:

The PS3 has to do this number per average throughout the year, if you take in account the last 2 month for 40% sales of the year (thats the usual number):

The weekly average during January-October has to be: 139534

That has the PS3 to do to reach the 10 Mio average per year. And if you calculate with 12 or 14 mio 2010 then its even lower. The number of average weekly non christmas sales during 2011 and 2012 if the PS3 has peaked in the year 2010 is: 125581 if the PS3 peaked with just 12 Mio in 2010 and if it peaks with 14 mio it just have to reach 111627, to reach 60 Mio by 12/31/2012.

Now you can still doubt but after january 2010 it will be hard to find proper arguments for your theory and after March 2010 it will be almost impossible to convince you self. Because then if you are able do some maths you will see clearly the effect. Dont forget last 2 months are 40% of sales so evan a number like 275000 would sound low if you subtract 40% of it. Because that means to achieve 275k weekly a year the sales have just to be 165000 during January-October.

there are still some chances to alter the numbers completly that. Those factors could have heavy influence like Natal. PS Wand If FF 14 transforms to a new WOW or the WII 2 launches or the Xbox720 and some Economic Crisis.

I know that nobody can predict a market nobody is able to do this there are hunderds of factors which can count and we had never before a similar situation. And the gaming market is NOT easy to predict thats why most of the people are wrong all the time. I know that.

You can see that on the Japanese market as I said its hard to predict it. Its not easy even if you know all factors so even a famous person of this site has to admit that there is a possibilty that he missinterpreted an easy market.

But what I did now is back up my predictions with a logic which everyone is able to see how it works and everyone can recalculate the whole prediction. And the Data to back it up will be there in March 2010 and after your logic my prediction cant be wrong every other prediciton can just be a ridicolous claim. So you have to accept it.

We will be able to see if a person who dont owns a Sales tracking website can make correct predictions.