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I don't think Halo has the sales muscle it once did. It will put up good numbers, but not MW2 numbers. The Halo story is over, and the franchise is aging. Halo Wars, Halo: ODST, and Halo: Reach are side tales, not the main attraction that was Halo 3.

I think Bungie would prefer to let Halo go after Reach.. preferring to go out on an up note. MS may have other plans for the IP though, afterwards.