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I haven't played either but my impression from what i have read and heard in the gaming media (the people who judge these) is that Uncharted 2 will probably get more GOTY awards

My reasoning:
1.Despite the fact that U2 is an exclusive game it got almost universal praise across the board with the only common criticism being that it lacked originality.

2. MW2 has been out a shorter time and although it's receiving excellent reviews there does seem to be a little more criticism of the game e.g short campaign, not as good as the first, graphics aren't 1280p etc.

Now while some of this may just be FUD from fanboys wanting to further highlight U2's credentials for game of the year, some of it does seem to be genuine criticism.

If the trend continues and MW2's image isn't 'saved' by it's crack-like online i would think that U2 will get more game of the year awards, except from sites that are afraid to give it to an exclusive where MW2 will be the default choice.