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ZorroX said:
MGS4 sold 3 mln. in 8 weeks with 14 mln. PS3.
GT is more popular and bigger franchise, than MGS.
28 mln. PS3 could mean 6 mln. GT5 in 8 weeks if GT5 would be released on same week WW.

Brand power means a lot this gen for big titles like GTA, Halo, MGS, GT.

And in Japan GT5 will sell over 1 mln. in worst case.

I think it's actually the best case for GT5 to sell over 1 million in Japan.

 

Also, MGS4 is only at 4.29 mil WW right now. That's only 43% more than it was at after 8 weeks of release. Applying it to the 6 mil after 8 weeks estimation you had for GT5, we have 8.58 mil after 17 months. It would be some time before it reaches 10 mil and a long long way from 15 mil.



MikeB predicts that the PS3 will sell about 140 million units by the end of 2016 and triple the amount of 360s in the long run.