I can't think of a senario where the assumption of the OP would have been true. I feel pretty confident in saying that Sony launched when they did because they felt 1 year was the longest lead time they could give MS; they had been betting on a 2006 launch from MS, and when 360 came out in 2005, they rushed the PS3 out the door. So it would break down like this:
Both launch in 2005: PS3 costs $1500, MS wins
MS launches in 2006: Sony would have put off the PS3 launch till 2007
MS launches in 2007 or later: Xbox 360 would be nothing like the one we know, and any predictions would be pointless







