I'd have to guess that 360 would have a smaller total than you calculate and PS3 a higher one. The 360 would have lost its early time on market to gather more titles/developers, and as a result most likely the majority of developers would have headed straight for PS3 vs 360 apart from a few of the more PC centric developers at the time.
The PS3 launch, particularly looking at Europe, would have put it quickly ahead so general perception would have been 360 was losing almost right from the start, therefore PS3 would probably have won the media battle from the off and been seen as the HD system of choice.
Of course, MS were well aware of this being the likely scenario, which is why I believe they decided they had to launch first at all costs and rushed 360 to market.
Try to be reasonable... its easier than you think...
