Just going off of NJ5's numbers I am going to set an absolute MAX that should be available for the Holidays.
Ok it does take 20 days for shipments to reach the shelves but that doesn't mean units aren't being produced in that period and the time it takes to reach the shelf is irrelevent for the stockpiled units in this case. It should however be taken into account for what we do/don't subtract out and so the monthly sales calculation will start from June 20 (whichever week is closest) So our calculations should probably include June and will run through to current to again account for the 20 day shelf delay. Realize that any assumption I am making is designed to increase this number since we are going for a MAX.
1.8m x 5 (June, July, Aug, Sept, Oct) - ∑(monthly sales)
this simplifies to:
9m - 4.9m = 4.1m
With 4.1m stockpiled we can then add in the 1.8x1.35 (20 days at the end of Dec will not be able to account for holiday shipments).
And our final total is 6.53.
I would like to point out that production doesn't just ramp up all of a sudden and it is very likely that the months leading up to June there was stockpiling as well but without some sort of data to back it up its only wild speculation. But just for fun I will wildly speculate that it would account for at most another 1.5m and as part of that wild speculation it would put the max at around 8.03m for the holidays alone.
PS - Keep in mind that this is what should be available from now until the end of Dec and while it does account for the first weeks of Nov this number does not include them.
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