@reverie,
My first impression upon reading what you said was to take another look at stockpiling, but a closer look seems to indicate that this actually strengthens the stockpiling position...not the opposite.
Just looking over the last 2 months WW for Oct & Sept we see that Sept was around 1.2m (5 weeks or 33,213 per day avg) and Oct was just over 1m (4 weeks or 36,669 per day avg).
Now looking at this data the last two weeks of october were significantly larger than the first two weeks and had they not increased the total for the month would have been closer to 800k. This sudden increase begs the question of where that sudden increase came from, and even more interestingly it begs the question where exactly did the extra ~1.4m units go ?
1.8x2=3.6
Sept(1.2)+Oct(1.0) = 2.2
3.6-2.2=1.4.
Even if we want to play with the production numbers to simulate a ramp up there is no way it is going to ramp up in a way that negates the fact that more than a million units could have been shipped but were not.
The obvious answer to these anamolies is X-mas stockpiling. But I am still willing to listen to alternative theories provided they are sensible.
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| To Each Man, Responsibility |
