Famitsu Sales (10/26 - 11/01)

[saicho]

binary solo said:

saicho said:

binary solo said:

 

According to who?

VGC has PS3 in Japan doing 24.7K last week. OK so I'm comparing VGC number last week with Famitsu number this week which creates a margin for error. But I'm gonna go with the numbers this site posts for consistency (Japan Preview is picking 35-40K so Famitsu is right in the sweet spot there). Feel free to correct me once VGC adjusts its 24 Oct numbers. I expect VGC 1 Nov numbers to be over 35K this week so an 11K boost minimum.

However, if you'd asked me to predict what the Bayonetta boost would be for PS3 and 360 I would have predicted not much of a boost and about the same. So 16% for both PS3 and 360 makes more sense to me. Perhaps last week's VGC numbers are a bit on the low side for PS3.

1. not sure why you are comparing Fatmisu number this week to VGC number last week while Famitsu number last week is available.

2. If PS3 is at 35K for VGC as your predicted, a 11K boost from 24K is not 54% boost.

3. If your prediction of 35K is true and apply your logic for "margin of error", I could say PS3 boost is only 13% (31K -> 35K).

Try reading the bit you bolded again. I already addressed your point 1. and I think it is fair to make the comparison. The way I see it the default reference for stats on this site is the VGC number, unless VGC doesn't have a number (which it doesn't yet for WE 1 Nov). So I use 24.5K for WE 24 Oct as the official VGC number (until adjusted) and 37K for 1 Nov as an unofficial but reasonably presumptive number (based on Famitsu number sitting nicely in the middle of the Japan Preview range).

For your point 2. I said "over 35K" not 35K, 37K is a reasonable figure to put as a placeholder again being what Famitsu has reported and fitting well with the Japan preview, near the middle. This suggests VGC will be close to 37K, thus 24K -> 37K is 54% . If VGC doesn't adjust 24 Oct numbers and this week is 37K then ~54% it will be (OK 24.5K which makes it 51%, sue me).

Point 3. again I'm predicting over 35K. So no you can't say the boost is only 13% using my predicion and reasoning. Using my prediciton you have to say the boost is >13%. Just a small point. In any case my logic for margin for error doesn't allow for 31K for 24 Oct, because as of right now 24.5K is a fixed reference by my logic. the margin for error is in the 1 Nov number only. However I also allow that VGC may end up adjusting 24 Oct up, in which case I invite you to gleefully correct me.

You also might want to read my paragraph you didn't bold too.

Oct 24 number was adjusted up and it looks like you overestimate this week's number. There is always a chance it would adjust up to your estimate next week but for now it's at 34K.