Well it is definitely a little more plausible now. My early predictions were 9-10 million and a few weeks ago (before financial report) I updated that to 10-11 million for Sony.
Well my guesses are they were able to "stuff" the market a little bit with the PS3. During July and August it's doubtful they shipped too much (500,000 to a million tops) so majority of that came in September (whether it was slim or getting rid of the rest of the old style's stock). So there are definitely a lot of PS3's on the market. Obviously you won't get normal increases in the holiday months for shipments becuase they had that big bulge in September. Meaning it would seem Sony might be able to ship 6-6.5 million in the holiday quarter but I think a more reasonable guess is 5-6 million. UNLESS they are able to stuff the market based on hype among other things.
Following that they do have a strong lineup in Q4 FY10 so they may be able to get a solid 2-3 million. What it is looking like is 7-9 million units for the second half which would put us as at 11.3-13.3 million units for the fiscal year. What needs to happen is of course strong sales continued throughout the holiday season followed by a a strong Q4 FY10. If sales "saturate" or don't prove to be a big hit during the holidays then this will not happen. But it is definitely a possible target (although on the high end) if sales stay strong. I think a more reasonable guess right now seems to be the 11-12 million target as someone else stated. But I'm personally seeing about a 5.5 million shipment in Q3 FY10 followed by a 2.5 million shipment in Q4 FY10 for a total off 11.3 million.
So definitely looking much better for Sony for being able to hit this but we'll see how it plays out.
