Nintendo's big failing was they didn't anticipate the failure of Wii Music, and since they had only gone with one big Wii franchise game a year to maintain momentum, they lost the momentum they had gained, if they had had something ready to go after the Wii Music debacle, they would have been fine, but they didn't, Wii Motion plus wasn't even out yet, and even now, they don't have anything which progresses Motion plus beyond Wii Sports resort, and the Vitality sensor is still a year off.
The Idea that the problem is they went super casual is wrong, in fact the problem is, they didn't have anything that would expand the market further or go deeper on the lines they had already created.
Wii 2/HD, doesn't solve the problem, so people saying that are wrong also, a new system, won't address the issue of maintaining momentum, only being able to keep software that either goes deeper down what they have already done, or continues to expand the market will do that. The fact is, they need to bring out games that further expand the Wii motion plus and the balance board, and they need to show software that shows off the ability of the Vitality sensor, just releasing a Wii HD won't do that, since the hardware is not the issue its the lack of software.
Predictions:Sales of Wii Fit will surpass the combined sales of the Grand Theft Auto franchiseLifetime sales of Wii will surpass the combined sales of the entire Playstation family of consoles by 12/31/2015 Wii hardware sales will surpass the total hardware sales of the PS2 by 12/31/2010 Wii will have 50% marketshare or more by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! It was a little over 48% only)Wii will surpass 45 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2008 (I was wrong!! Nintendo Financials showed it fell slightly short of 45 million shipped by end of 2008)Wii will surpass 80 Million in lifetime sales by the end of 2009 (I was wrong!! Wii didn't even get to 70 Million)







