I do think the PS3 is going to end up between 12-13m so if 13m is a little bullish its not enough to lower their forecast. I had been expecting PS3 to hold up a little better than it has.
The PSP is the one thats going to get a major revision though. Here is the problem - figures millions of units shipped worldwide.
PSP Apr-Jun July-Sept Oct-Dec Jan-Mar Year
3/2009 3.7m 3.2m 5.1m 2.1m 14.1m
3/2010 1.3m ~1.9m ~3-3.5m ~1.3-1.6m 7.5m-8.3m
~8m PSPs after a 14m year isn't a good outcome, particularly when 15m was predicted. If I'm correct its a a 40-50% drop and a larger volume drop that Nintendo's adjusted Wii figure.
With 1.9m in July-Sept (which is a bullish figure on my part frankly) PSP will be at 3.2m in Apr-Sep down 3.7m units from last Apr-Sept. To get to 15m Sony would have to beat its PSP figures from the previous year by 3.7m+0.9m...or by 4.6m. If the PSP Go had been a big hit that could have happened. Instead, PSP HW will probably continue tracking below last year. Even if Oct-March is up somehow because of PSP Go, Sony probably still has to lower its forecast to at least under 12m because of how far down PSP is to date.
People are difficult to govern because they have too much knowledge.
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